Hi everyone, welcome to another Weekly Forex Forecast. My name is Justin Bennett with Daily Price Action and in today’s Article we’re gonna talk about the EURUSD usd to aud.
The pound USD, the dollar yen, the New Zealand dollar versus the USD, and also gold. That’s one I haven’t talked about in a while, but you are gonna wanna keep an eye on this pattern I’m about to show you. Let’s get started right now.A quick disclaimer that today’s Article is for educational purposes only. All views are my opinion and are not intended as investment advice. Forex is a high-reward, high-risk business and you should not trade with borrowed money or money you cannot afford to lose. See the description of this Article for the full disclaimer. Before we begin, be sure to hit that Comments button below. So the first currency payer we’re gonna talk about today is the EURUSD,xauusd and I mentioned this one a couple of times recently, including last week, where we are watching for our bounds from this 1.0990 to 1.1020 support area. So, notice how both of these are key horizontal levels, based on recent price action. And, 1.0990 was especially significant because it was where the pair bounced earlier in October. So, remember that we had this breakout of this short term downtrend right here on this candle.
So, once the pair broke out there, it then rotated lower, retested this level right here, and it also retested 1.0990, which is, again, a key horizontal level. So, this 1.0990 area was significant, and it’s one I mentioned a few times recently, that we were watching for. So, this low on Thursday was one pip below 1.0990. Furthermore, if you notice the range on Thursday was actually a bullish engulfing candle. So, the high and the low of Thursday engulfed the high and the low of Wednesday. And, this right here is a bi-signal that I look for, just like a pin bar. So, myself and other Daily Price Action members were able to get long here, right in the 110 area. And the reason I bought this early is because I saw, on Thursday, I saw the pair come down, and retest 1.0990, start to bounce, and then, right through here there was a sudden surge in demand. And, when I saw that, I decided to buy, with a small starter position, with the idea that I would add to it as we got a close, back above 1.1020, and perhaps back above 1.1070 sometime this coming week. So, for the week ahead, I do wanna see the EURUSD stay constructive and continue to push higher. usd to aud So, I don’t wanna see the pair rotate lower and come back and retest 1.1020.
usd to aud
I wanna see it stay above some of these recent lows and highs. So, notice how, if we just look at these candles, through this area, notice how we have this low, and these two highs, so right around 1.1030, perhaps 1.1035. So, I do wanna see the euro stay constructive, and I wanna see buyers continue to push the pair higher, xauusd chart this week, up into that 1.1070 level. Now, just based on the price action here, at 1.1070. This is going to be a key battle zone for the EURUSD. So, I do expect sellers to come out and try to defend 1.1070, and, of course, it’s going to take a daily close above that, in order to expose these recent highs, up around 1.1170/80. Alternatively, if we do see the euro start to rotate lower and weaken, and also start to take out some of these new support levels, especially 1.1020. So, if it starts to crash, and it re exposes 1.0990, I do think that would be a sign of weakness, however, as I mentioned last week, it’s going to take a daily close below this ascending channel support, in order to negate the bullish scenario. And, if that does happen, if we do see a close below the support area, it would also re expose some of these year-to-date lows around 1.09.
Next up, we have the British pound versus the USD, or GBPUSD. And, this is one that is still consolidating between 1.2770 and 1.2980. So, I’ve talked about this, now, a couple of times, including in last weeks Article. Notice how ever since the pair broke above this 1.2770 area, based on this low back here, as well as several highs. Since the pair closed above this level, it has been consolidating for a potential push higher. So, I also talked about 1.2770 in the last few weekly forecasts. And, I mentioned that I did expect buyers to try to defend 1.2770 as support. So, notice how this recent dip into that level did catch a bid and pushed higher. However, it is still going to take, in my opinion, a break of this range before we really see the pound start to move again. So, if we see a daily close above this area, just below 1.30, it would expose 1.3170. So, notice how we have several highs through this area. And, if we see a daily close below this 1.2770 support level, it would expose 1.2570, based on several lows back here, as well as this high, this high, and then also, this bounce from 1.2570. So, as of right now, for the British pound, I’m just watching and waiting to see which way this decides to break. I will say that based on this short term uptrend, so, we have higher lows, this is a potential higher low, but we also have this higher high recently. So, based on this short term uptrend, and also based on the fact that we have this 800 pip rally and buyers are refusing to back down. So, since we have this rally, the pair has consolidated nicely, above 1.2770. So, right now, this does look constructive for the British pound, so I’d be really hesitant to try to sell it, even if we get a close below 1.2770.
Ideally, I would like to see this consolidation continue and eventually break that area, just below 1.30. Next up, we have the dollar yen, or USDJPY, and, this is another one that we’ve been looking at for quite some time. More specifically, we were watching for a break below this rising wedge support. So, this pattern did hint at exhaustion from buyers. However, if you read my recent posts, I said that we also had this conflicting bullish signal, based on this potential inverse head and shoulders. So, notice how the neckline of that pattern is technically still intact. So, remember, this was the left shoulder back here. We then had the head and the right shoulder. Now, the pair broke out here, retested the neckline as new support, moved higher, however, then it crashed back down to the neckline, retested it again. And so, that leaves us with this indecision between breaking below this bearish pattern, and also staying above this potential bullish pattern back here. However, despite these conflicting signals, I did mention a week ago that I favored the bearish scenario, simply because, even if the dollar yen had closed above this wedge top, I don’t like to buy upside breaks of ascending channels, or ascending levels, because they do tend to trigger bull traps. So, a lot of times with a level like this, that is ascending,
if you get a close above it, and, even if the market breaks higher, a lot of times, you’ll then get an immediate crash back below that level. You’ll also, a lot of times, get something like a weekly pin bar, signaling the supply above that area. So, remember that upside breaks of ascending levels do tend to trigger bull traps, and a reversal lower. So, even if the dollar yen had started to close above this level, and make good on that inverse head and shoulders, I was more interested in a move lower. And we got the close below wedge support on Thursday, and we also had this retest on Friday. So, as we begin the new week, the dollar yen is technically staying below this wedge support. So it retested it as resistance, and it closed the date, just below that level, but it’s going to be key to see sellers come in early this week and start to push the pair lower.